Steven Neal Ward

Present Position:

                        Research Geophysicist

                        Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics

                        University of California

                        Santa Cruz, CA 95064

                        (831) 459-2480     email:  ward@es.ucsc.edu   webpage: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward

                        PDF of this Document Here:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/vitafull.pdf

 

Education:

            B.S.,    Physics, 1974              Bucknell University, Lewisburg, Pennsylvania

            M.A.,   Geophysics, 1976        Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

            Ph.D.,  Geophysics, 1978        Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

 

Experience:

            7/86-Present                Research Geophysicist

            1/84-6/86                     Associate Research Geophysicist

                                                University of California, Santa Cruz

 

            10/80-12/83                 Associate Research Geophysicist

                                                Harvard University

 

            9/78-9/80                     Postgraduate Research Geophysicist

                                                Scripps Institution of Oceanography

 

            9/74-8/78                     Assistant in Research (Geophysics)

                                                Assistant in Instruction (Oceanography)

                                                Princeton University

 

Service:

1992-2003. Board of Editors Geophysical Journal International

 

1990. Guest Co-Editor for the Geophysical Research Letters special issue on the 1989, Loma Prieta Earthquake.

 

Research Interests:

            -Theoretical Seismology: Seismic Sources, Earthquake Simulations

            -Tsunami Wave Generation: Asteroids, Landslides, Earthquakes

            -Natural Disasters:  Floods, Landslides, Storm Surge

            -Neotectonics

            -Earthquake Hazard

            -Impact Cratering


Publications:

 

Ward, S. N., 1978. Two studies of long period body waves. Ph.D. thesis, Princeton University.

 

Ward, S. N., 1979. Long period reflected and converted upper mantle phases. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 68, 133-153.

 

Ward, S. N., 1979. Ringing P waves and submarine faulting, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 3057-3062.

 

Ward, S. N., 1980. Body wave calculations using moment tensor sources in spherically symmetric, inhomogeneous media, Geophys. J. Roy. Astron. Soc., 60, 53-66.

 

Ward, S. N., 1980. A technique for the recovery of the seismic moment tensor applied to the Oaxaca, Mexico earthquake of November 1978, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 70, 717-734.

 

Ward, S. N., 1980. Relationships of tsunami generation and an earthquake source, J. Phys. Earth, 28, 441-474.

 

Ward, S. N., 1981. On elastic wave calculations in a sphere using moment tensor sources, Geophys. J. Roy. Astron. Soc., 66, 23-30.

 

Ward, S. N., 1981. On tsunami nucleation: I. A point source,  J. Geophys. Res.,86, 7895-7900.

 

Ward, S. N., 1981. Simplified bodywave source terms with one application in moment tensor recovery, in Identification of seismic sources - Earthquakes or underground explosion, ed. E. S. Husebye and S. Mykkeltveit, p. 269-272, D. Reidel Publishers, Boston.

 

Ward, S. N., 1982. On tsunami nucleation: II. An instantaneous modulated line source, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 27, 273-285.

 

Ward, S. N., 1982. Earthquake mechanisms and tsunami generation-- The Kurile Islands event of October 13, 1963, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 72, 759-777.

 

Ward, S. N., 1983. Body wave inversion: Moment tensors and depths of oceanic intraplate bending earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 88, 9315-9330.

 

Ward, S. N., 1984. A note on lithospheric bending calculations, Geophys. J. Roy. Astron. Soc., 78, 241-253.

 

Ward, S. N., 1985. Small scale mantle flow and induced lithospheric stress near island arcs, Geophys. J. Roy. Astron. Soc., 81, 409-428.

 

Ward, S. N., 1985. Quasi-static propagator matrices: creep on strike slip faults, Tectonophysics, 120, 83-106.

 

Ward, S. N., and S. E. Barrientos, 1986. An inversion for slip distribution and fault shape from geodetic observations of the 1983, Borah Peak, Idaho Earthquake,  J. Geophys. Res., 91, 4909-4919.

 

Ward, S. N., 1986. A note on the surface volume change of shallow earthquakes, Geophys. J. Roy. Astron. Soc., 85, 461-466.

 

Barrientos, S. E., R. S. Stein  and S. N. Ward, 1987. A comparison of the 1959 Hebgen Lake, Montana and the 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho earthquakes from geodetic data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 77, 784-808.

 

Ward, S. N., 1988. The North America-Pacific Boundary, An Elastic-Plastic Megashear- Evidence from VLBI, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 7716-7728.

 

Ward, S. N. and G. Valensise, 1989. Fault Parameters and Slip Distribution of the 1915, Avezzano, Italy Earthquake derived from Geodetic Observations, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 79, 690-710.

 

Ward, S. N., 1989. Tsunamis, in Encyclopedia of Geophysics, ed. D. E. James, Van Nostrand Publishers, Stroudsburg Pennsylvania, 1279-1292.

 

Ward, S. N., 1990. North America-Pacific Plate Motions: New Results from Very Long Baseline Interferometry, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 21,965-21,981.

 

Barrientos, S. E. and S. N. Ward, 1990. The 1960 Chile Earthquake: Inversion for Slip Distribution from Surface Deformation, Geophys. J. Int., 103, 589-598.

 

McNally, K. and S. N. Ward, 1990. The Loma Prieta Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Introduction to the Special Issue, Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 1177.

 

Valensise, G. and S. N. Ward, 1991. Long-Term Uplift of the Santa Cruz Coastline in Response to Repeated Earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 81, 1694-1704.

 

Ward, S. N., 1991. Synthetic Seismicity Models for the Middle America Trench, J. Geophys. Res., 96, 21433-21442.

 

Ward. S. N., 1991. Geoculprit, Science, 254, 1822-1823.

 

Plafker, G. and S. N. Ward, 1992. Thrust Faulting and Tectonic Uplift Along the Caribbean Sea Coast During the April 22, 1991 Costa Rica Earthquake, Tectonics, 11, 709-718.

 

Ward, S. N., 1992. An Application of Synthetic Seismicity in Earthquake Statistics: The Middle America Trench, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 6675-6682.

 

Ward, S. N., 1992. Synthetic Quakes Model for Long Term Prediction, Geotimes, 37, 19-20.

 

Ward, S. N. and S. D. B. Goes, 1993. How Regularly do Earthquakes Recur? A Synthetic Seismicity Model for the San Andreas Fault, Geophysical Research Letters, 20, 2131- 2134.

 

Ward, S. N. and G. Valensise, 1994. The Palos Verdes Terraces, California: Bathtub Rings from a Buried Reverse Fault J. Geophys. Res., 11, 4485-4494.

 

Ward, S. N., 1994. Constraints on the seismotectonics of the Central Mediterranean from Very Long Baseline Interferometry, Geophys. Jour. Int., 117, 441-452.

 

Ward, S. N., 1994. A Multidisciplinary Approach to Seismic Hazard in Southern California, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 84, 1293-1309.

 

Goes, S. D. B. and S. N. Ward, 1994. Synthetic seismicity for the San Andreas Fault, Annali Di Geofisica, 37, 1495-1513.

 

Jackson, D. D., K. Aki, C. A. Cornell, J. H. Dieterich, T. L. Henyey, M. Mahdyiar, D. Schwartz, and S. N. Ward, 1995. Seismic Hazards in Southern California: Probable Earthquakes, 1994-2024, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 379-439.

 

Ritsema, J., S. N. Ward and F. Gonzalez, 1995. Inversion of Deep-Ocean Tsunami Records for 1987-1988 Gulf of Alaska Earthquake Parameters, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 747-754.

 

Ward, S. N., 1995. Area-based tests of Long-term Seismic Hazard Predictions, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 1285-1298.

 

Ward, S. N. and G. Valensise, 1996. Progressive growth of San Clemente Island, California, by blind thrust faulting: implications for fault slip partitioning in the California Continental Borderland, Geophys. Jour. Int., 126, 712-734.

 

Ward, S. N., 1996. A synthetic seismicity model for southern California: Cycles, Probabilities, Hazards, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22,393-22,418.

 

Ward, S. N., 1997. More on Mmax, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 1199-1208.

 

Ward, S. N., 1997. Dogtails versus Rainbows: Synthetic earthquake rupture models as an aid in interpreting geological data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 1422-1441.

 

Ward, S. N., 1998. On the consistency of earthquake rates, geological fault data, and space geodetic strain: The United States, Geophys. Jour. Int., 134, 172-186.

 

Ward, S. N., 1998. On the consistency of earthquake moment release and space geodetic strain rates: Europe, Geophys. Jour. Int., 135, 1011-1018.

 

Ward, S. N., 1998. A deficit vanished, Nature, 394, 829-830.

 

Sieh, K., S. N. Ward, D. Natawidjaja and B. W. Suwargadi, 1999. Crustal Deformation at the Sumatran Subduction Zone Revealed by Coral Rings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3141-3144.

 

Ward, S. N., 2000. San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Simulations: A step toward a Standard Physical Earthquake Model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, 370-386.

 

Ward, S. N. and E. Asphaug, 2000. Asteroid Impact Tsunami: A probabilistic hazard assessment, Icarus, 145, 64-78.

 

Ward, S. N., 2001. Landslide Tsunami, J. Geophys. Res., 106, B6, 11,201-11,216.

 

Ward, S. N. and S. Day 2001. Cumbre Vieja Volcano -- Potential Collapse and Tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3397-3400.

 

Ward, S. N., 2002. “Tsunamis” in The Encyclopedia of Physical Science and Technology, ed. R. A. Meyers, Academic Press, Vol. 17, 175-191.

 

Ward, S. N. and E. Asphaug, 2002. Impact Tsunami - Eltanin, Deep-Sea Research Part II, Vol. 46, 6, 1073-1079.

 

Ward, S. N., 2002. Planetary Cratering: A Probabilistic Approach, J. Geophys. Res., 107, E4, 10.1029, p7-1 to 7-11.

 

Ward, S. N. and S. Day 2002. “Suboceanic Landslides” in 2002 Yearbook of Science and Technology, McGraw-Hill, 349-352.

 

Ward, S. N., 2002. Slip-Sliding Away, Nature, 415, 973-974.

 

Schnellmann, M., F. S. Anselmetti, D. Giardini, J. A. McKenzie, and S. N. Ward, 2002. Prehistoric earthquake history revealed by lacustrine slump deposits, Geology, 30, 1131-1134.

 

Ward, S. N. and E. Asphaug, 2003. Asteroid Impact Tsunami of 16 March, 2880, Geophys. J. Int., 153, F6-F10.

 

Ward, S. N. and S. Day, 2003. Ritter Island Volcano- Lateral collapse and tsunami of 1888, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 891-902.

 

Schnellmann, M., F. S. Anselmetti, and S. N. Ward, 2003. Sturm trotz Flaute: Tsunamis auf dem Vierwaldstrattersee, GAIA, 12(4), 13-18.

 

Schnellmann, M., F. S. Anselmetti, D. Giardini, J. A. McKenzie, and S. N. Ward, 2004. Ancient Earthquakes at Lake Lucern, American Scientist, 92, 38-45.

 

Natawidjaja, D. H., K. Sieh, S. N. Ward, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, J Galetzka, and B. W. Suwargadi, 2004. Paleogeodetic records of seismic and aseismic subduction from central Sumatran microatolls, Indonesia, J. Geophs. Res., doi:10.1029/2003JB002398, v4, p4306.

 

Ward, S. N., 2004. Earthquake Simulation by Restricted Random Walks, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 94, 2079-2089.

 

Lay, T., H. Kanamori, C. J. Ammon, M. Nettles, S. N. Ward, and others. 2005. The Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake  of 26 December 2004.  Science, v308, p1127.

 

Silver, E., S. Day, S. N. Ward and others, 2005. Island Arc debris avalanches and tsunami generation, EOS- Transactions of Am. Geophys. Un., 86, 485.

 

Ward, S. N. and S. Day, 2005. Tsunami Thoughts.  Recorder – Journal of the Canadian  Society of Exploration Geophysicists, December 2005, 39-44.

 

Chesley, S. R. and S. N. Ward, 2006. Impact-generated tsunami: A quantitative assessment of human and economic hazard, J. Natural Hazards, 38, 355-374, DOI 10.1007/s11069-005-1921-y.

 

Ward, S. N. and S. Day, 2006. A particulate kinematic model for large debris avalanches: Interpretation of debris avalanche deposits and landslide seismic signals of Mount St. Helens, May 18th 1980.  Geophys. J. Int., 167, 991-1004, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03118.x

 

Natawidjaja, D. H., K. Sieh, J Galetzka,  B. W. Suwargadi, H. Cheng, M. Chlieh, R. L. Edwards, J-P Avouac and  S. N. Ward, 2006.  The giant Sumatran megathrust ruptures of 1797 and 1833: Paleoseismic evidence from coral microatolls,  J. Geophs. Res., v111, B06403, doi:10.1029/2005JB004025.

 

Ward, S. N., 2007. Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around California, Seism. Res. Letters, 78, 121-133.

 

Salamon, Amos, T. Rockwell, S. N. Ward, E. Guidoboni and A. Comastri, 2007. Tsunami Hazard evaluation of the Eastern Mediterranean: Historical Analysis and Selected Modeling, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 97, 1-20.

 

Ward, S. N., 2008. “Tsunami” in The World Book Encyclopedia, World Book Publishing Press, p475-476.

 

Ward, S. N., and S. Day, 2008.  Tsunami Balls: A particulate approach to tsunami runup and inundation, Comm. in Computational Phys., 3, 222-249.

 

Ward, S. N., and S. Day, 2008. Terrestrial crater counts: Evidence of a two to four-fold increase in bolide flux at 125 Ma. Earth, Planets, Space.

 

Ward, S. N, 2009. A tsunami ball approach to storm surge and inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, International  Journal  of  Geophysics, Volume 2009, Article ID 324707, 13 pages doi:10.1155/2009/324707

 

Silver, Eli, S. Day, S. N. Ward, G. Hoffmann, P. Llanes, N. Driscoll, B. Applegate, S. Saunders, 2009.  Volcano Collapse and Tsunami Generation in the Bismarck Volcanic Arc, Papua New Guinea, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores .2009.06.013

 

Ward, S. N., and S. Day, 2010.  The 1958 Lituya Bay Landslide and Tsunami: A Tsunami Ball Approach , Journal  of Earthquake and Tsunami,  Accepted  and  in press.

 

Ward, S. N., 2010. “Tsunami” in The Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, ed. H. Gupta, Springer Press, Accepted and in press.

 

Ward, S.N. and S. Day, 2010.  The 1963 Landslide and Flood at Vaiont Reservoir Italy – A tsunami ball simulation.  In preparation.

 


SELECTED PUBLICATIONS

 with THUMBNAIL DESCRIPTION and HYPERLINKS

to PDF and VIDEO SAMPLES

 

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Jackson, D. D., K. Aki, C. A. Cornell, J. H. Dieterich, T. L. Henyey, M. Mahdyiar, D. Schwartz, and S. N. Ward, 1995. Seismic Hazards in Southern California: Probable Earthquakes, 1994-2024., Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 379-439.

 

A hallmark product of the Southern California Earthquake Center, this work largely builds on  Ward (1994, A Multidisciplinary Approach to Seismic Hazard in Southern California, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 84, 1293-1309) to develop a multidisciplinary seismic hazard assessment of southern California

 

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Ritsema, J., S. N. Ward and F. Gonzalez, 1995. Inversion of Deep-Ocean Tsunami Records for 1987-1988 Gulf of Alaska Earthquake Parameters,  Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 747-754.

 

Written with graduate student J. Ritsema, this paper is one of the first quantitative examinations of a tsunami waveform observed in the deep ocean.

 

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Ward, S. N., 1995. Area-based tests of Long-term Seismic Hazard Predictions, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 85, 1285-1298.

 

Making earthquake hazard estimates is one thing, devising objective means to test them is another. This paper constructs such tests and applies them to the hazard maps of Ward (1994).

 

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Ward, S. N. and G. Valensise, 1996. Progressive growth of San Clemente Island, California, by blind thrust faulting: implications for fault slip partitioning in the California Continental Borderland, Geophys. Jour. Int., 126, 712-734.

 

Repetitive slip on blind faults parent many of California’s landforms, including the Santa Cruz Mountains. This paper quantifies the style and slip rate of the San Clemente blind thrust which is responsible for the creation of one of California’s Channel Islands.

 

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Ward, S. N., 1996. A synthetic seismicity model for southern California: Cycles, Probabilities, Hazards, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 22,393-22,418.

 

Physically based models of earthquake recurrence represent the future of hazard estimation. This paper simulates some 5000 years of earthquake history on the southern California fault system using computer models of stress build up and release.

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Ward, S. N., 1997. Dogtails versus Rainbows: Synthetic earthquake rupture models as an aid in interpreting geological data, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 1422-1441.

 

Geological observations of large earthquakes are rare. This paper aims to extract the most information possible from these limited observations by means of carefully tailored computer models of dynamic rupture. Dogtails and Rainbows by the way, are two types of earthquake rupture terminations that can be observed in the field.

 

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Ward, S. N., 1997.  More on Mmax, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 87, 1199-1208.

 

Mmax is the largest earthquake that a fault or set of faults could suffer. Whether Mmax should be based on fault length, or set automatically equal to 8 is controversial.  The impact of the choice on hazard estimates is great, but historical data are insufficient favor either. To help, this paper develops computer models of Mmax earthquakes on a range of realistic fault geometries. I find that the Mmax equal to 8 assumption is unlikely.

 

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Ward, S. N., 1998. On the consistency of earthquake rates, geological fault data, and space geodetic strain: The United States, Geophys. Jour. Int., 134, 172-186.

 

There are three ways to estimate future earthquake rates: 1) Suppose that the rate of earthquakes in the past will continue; 2) Use geological information and add up the potential earthquake rate from all known faults; 3) Translate the geodetically-observed rate of crustal deformation into an equivalent earthquake rate.  The three techniques should give equal values over 1000’s of years, however over shorter durations they do not. This paper first quantifies these rates for several regions of the United States, and then proposes a strategy to best incorporate their diverse opinions into hazard estimates.

 

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Ward, S. N., 1998. On the consistency of earthquake moment rates and space geodetic strain: Europe, Geophys. Jour. Int., 135, 1011-1018.

 

Carrying on the approach of paper #8, this article uses space geodesy to map strain rates for all of continental Europe. European strain rates vary from less than 0.09x10-8/y in the British Isles to >7.0x10-8/y in Turkey. In Mediterranean Europe, observed seismic moment rates extracted from a 100-year historical catalog account for 56% to 68% of the moment rate predicted from geodesy. In Turkey, the proportion falls to 18%. Although aseismic deformation may contribute to this deficit, the magnitudes of the shortfall coincide with the variations expected in 100-year catalogs.

 

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Ward, S. N., 1998. A deficit vanished, Nature, 394, 829-830.

 

In this “News and Views” piece solicited by Nature, I comment on the southern California earthquake rate deficit implied in the Working Group’95 Report (see paper #1). New research suggests that the deficit was an artifact of the incomplete historical earthquake catalog used in the ’95 Report, coupled with several intertwined, and possibly unjustified, assumptions.

 

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Ward, S. N., 2000. San Francisco Bay Area Earthquake Simulations: A step toward a Standard Physical Earthquake Model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, 370-386.

 

Earthquakes in California’s San Francisco Bay Area are likely to be more strongly affected by stress interaction than earthquakes in any other place in the world because of the region’s closely spaced, sub-parallel distribution of faults. I believe that meaningful quantification of earthquake probability and hazard in the Bay Area can be made only with the guidance provided by physically-based and region-wide earthquake models that account for this interaction. This paper represents a first step in developing a Standard Physical Earthquake Model for the San Francisco Bay Area through realistic, 3000-year computer simulations of earthquakes on all of the area’s major faults.

 

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Ward, S. N. and E. Asphaug, 2000. Asteroid Impact Tsunami: A probabilistic hazard assessment, Icarus, 145, 64-78.

 

Tectonics ORU researcher Erik Asphaug and I investigate the generation, propagation, and probabilistic hazard of tsunami spawned by oceanic asteroid impacts. The process first links the depth and diameter of parabolic impact craters to asteroid density, radius, and impact velocity by means of elementary energy arguments and crater scaling rules. Then, linear tsunami theory illustrates how these transient craters evolve into vertical sea surface waveforms at distant positions and times. In the final step, linear shoaling theory applied at the frequency associated with peak tsunami amplitude corrects for amplifications as the waves near land. By coupling this tsunami amplitude/distance information with the statistics of asteroid falls, the probabilistic hazard of impact tsunami is assessed in much the same way as probabilistic seismic hazard, by integrating contributions over all admissible impactor sizes and impact locations.

 

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Sieh, K., S. N. Ward, D. Natawidjaja and B. W. Suwargadi, 1999. Crustal deformation at the Sumatran Subduction Zone revealed by coral rings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3141-3144.

 

Along some tropical coastlines, one tool that is proving useful in illuminating interseismic deformations is coral microatolls. These coral forms fill the role of “tectonic tape  recorders” by monitoring variations in relative sea level over decades with an accuracy of about one cm. This paper, co-authored with Kerry Sieh of Caltech, employs 25-year average rates of uplift extracted from coral microatolls to examine previously invisible interseismic deformations along a transect perpendicular to the Sumatran subduction zone.

 

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Ward, S. N., 2000. Landslide Tsunami, J. Geophys. Res., 106, B6, 11,201-11,216..

 

In the creation of “surprise tsunami”, submarine landslides head the suspect list. Moreover, improving technologies for seafloor mapping continue to sway perceptions on the number and size of surprises that may lay in wait offshore. At best, an entirely new distribution and magnitude of tsunami hazards has yet to be fully appreciated. At worst, landslides may pose serious tsunami hazard to coastlines worldwide, including those regarded as immune. To raise the proper degree of awareness, without needless alarm, the potential and frequency of landslide tsunami have to be assessed quantitatively. This assessment requires gaining a solid understanding of tsunami generation by landslides, and undertaking a census of the locations and extent of historical and potential submarine slides. This paper begins the process by offering models of landslide tsunami production, propagation and shoaling; and by exercising the theory on several real and hypothetical landslides offshore Hawaii, Norway and the United States eastern seaboard. I finish by broaching a line of attack for the hazard assessment by building on previous work that computed probabilistic tsunami hazard from asteroid impacts.

 

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Ward, S. N. and S. Day 2001. Cumbre Vieja Volcano -- Potential Collapse and Tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 3397-3400.

 

Geologist Simon Day (University College, London) and I discuss the ramifications of a sudden failure of the western flank of Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma Island. Simon has mapped a nearly continuous system of headwall cracks from sea level to over 1500 meters elevation. He interprets these cracks as evidence of an incipient landslide that could carry up to 500 km3 of material down the steep margin of the Island at speeds approaching 100 m/s. Support for such a scenario comes from sonar images of adjacent seafloor. These images reveal debris fields of 19 landslides of comparable volume that date from the Pleistocene. My calculations show that tsunami waves generated from a 500 km3 La Palma landslide would reach several hundred meters up the shores of the Canary Islands and would later span the entire North Atlantic basin with palpable amplitude. Because of the westerly direction of the potential landslide, North America is targeted especially. I predict that the East coast of Florida would experience a dozen or more waves of 25 meters height.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf

 

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Ward, S. N., 2002. “Tsunamis” in The Encyclopedia of Physical Science and Technology, ed. R. A. Meyers, Academic Press, Vol. 17, 175-191.

 

Academic Press asked me to write an article about tsunamis to be incorporated in the Natural Hazards section of a new edition of their Encyclopedia of Physical Science and Technology. It was challenging to develop a broad-based article touching upon tsunami generation (earthquake, sea floor landslide, and impact), propagation (geometrical spreading and frequency dispersion), and disposition (shoaling) within the spatial (8,000 words) and technical (Scientific American level) confines of a popular encyclopedia.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/tsunami_ency.pdf

 

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Ward, S. N. and E. Asphaug, 2002. Impact Tsunami - Eltanin, Deep-Sea Research Part II, Vol. 46, 6, 1073-1079.

 

Employing classical tsunami theory and elementary assumptions about the initial shape of impact cavities, Erik Asphaug and I compute tsunami from the Eltanin asteroid collision at 2.15 Ma. We predict that an Eltanin impactor 4 km in diameter would have blown an initial cavity as deep as the ocean and 60 km wide into the South Pacific and delivered 200-300 m high tsunami to the Antarctic Peninsula and the southern tip of South America 1200-1500 km away. New Zealand, 6000 km distant, would have met 60 m waves. An asteroid the size of Chicxulub (10 km diameter), had it fallen into water deeper than 1000 m, would have sent a 100 m tsunami out to 4000 km distance, even if shoaling amplifications are neglected.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/final_eltanin.pdf

 

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Ward, S. N., 2002. Planetary Cratering: A Probabilistic Approach, J. Geophys. Res., 107, E4, 10.1029, p7-1 to 7-11.

 

I develop several statistical formulas governing indices of asteroid cratering. Specific indices include: the fraction of a planet surface expected to be cratered N occasions over a given time interval, the depth of regolith development and the variability there of. Naturally, these indices depend upon asteroid flux and the minimum asteroid size threshold imposed by the atmosphere. By feeding estimates of the history of these quantities spanning current conditions to those present on the early Earth, I explore ramifications such as the survivability of crustal fragments and early life forms.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/jgr_final.pdf

 

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Ward, S. N. and S. Day 2002. “Suboceanic Landslides” in 2002 Yearbook of Science and Technology, McGraw-Hill, 349-352.

 

McGraw-Hill asked Simon Day and I to write an entry about underwater landslides for their 2002 edition of Yearbook of Science and Technology. In this 2000 word piece, we talked about the variety of scales of underwater landslides, a bit about their physics, and how they produce tsunami waves. We even managed to mention to wreck of the Titanic in connection with the 1929 Grand Banks Canada landslide.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/ward&day.pdf

 

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Ward, S. N., 2002. Slip-Sliding Away, Nature, 415, 973-974.

 

Nature asked me to write a "News and Views" piece on a recent GPS finding that a large hunk (2000 km3) of the flank of Kilauea Volcano had moved seaward 10 cm overnight. Knowing that huge volcanic landslides have happened many occasions over geologic time, I discussed the tsunami implications that this huge block might have if it someday slipped into the sea all at once. Tsunami waves would be generated that would span the entire pacific basin. About 20 m high waves would strike here in Santa Cruz. It's a good idea to keep an eye on oceanic volcanoes.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/ward_nature.pdf

 

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Schnellmann, M., F. S. Anselmetti, D. Giardini, J. A. McKenzie, and S. N. Ward, 2002. Prehistoric earthquake history revealed by lacustrine slump deposits, Geology, 30, 1131-1134.

 

During a visit to Zurich, I became interested in an ongoing project by several researchers there at ETH. Using sonar, this group discovered a half-dozen large disturbed layers in the otherwise smoothly stratified bed of Lake Lucerne. From their characteristics, these layers were identified as landslide debris fields triggered by 4 different historical and pre-historical earthquakes. My role in this project was to compute the "tsunami" waves that would be generated in the Lake by these slides. I predict that waves about 4-m height would have been produced by the last quake there in 1601. Four meters is close to the wave size chronicled for the event by eyewitnesses.

 

The journal Science named this paper as "Editor's Choice".

 

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Ward, S. N. and E. Asphaug, 2003. Asteroid Impact Tsunami of 16 March, 2880, Geophys. J. Int., 153, F6-F10.

 

In 2002, several JPL scientists predicted that a 1-km diameter asteroid named 1950-DA had as much as a 0.3% likelihood of striking the Earth on March 16, 2880. Erik Asphaug and I had constructed several simulations of tsunami from asteroid impacts previously, so running a simulation of the waves generated by 1950-DA seemed be a interesting means to present recent improvements in our techniques. From a supposed deep water impact about 600 km east of the North Carolina Coast, we predicted that most of the U.S. East Coast would suffer waves as high as 100 m. 20 m waves would make it all the way to Europe.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/gji_final_35N.pdf

 

SAMPLE MOVIE: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/1950-DA(5).mov

SAMPLE MOVIE: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/1950-DA(5_big).mov

 

The journal Science named this paper as "Editor's Choice" .

 

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Ward, S. N. and S. Day, 2003. Ritter Island Volcano- Lateral collapse and tsunami of 1888, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 891-902.

 

Back in 2001, Simon Day and I wrote a paper on the tsunami expected from a hypothetical flank collapse of a volcano in the Canary Islands. To reinforce the claims in that work, we felt it was useful to model a much smaller, but real, volcanic collapse that happened off New Guinea in 1888. Several eyewitness accounts of events and other nearly contemporaneous observations of the tsunami damage formed a small data set to "ground truth" our calculations. While there remained quite a bit of uncertainty on landslide kinematics, we felt that our approach successfully reproduced the 1888 data and that by extension, our predictions of a mega-tsunami from a much larger Canary Island landslide were defensible.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/gji_Ritter_final.pdf

 

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Schnellmann, M., F. S. Anselmetti, and S. N. Ward, 2003. Sturm trotz Flaute: Tsunamis auf dem Vierwaldstrattersee  (Storms in the Face of Calm: Tsunamis on Lake Lucerne), GAIA, 12(4), 13-18.

 

This piece was a German language take on our Lake Lucerne work written for the journal GAIA in a special issue dealing with Storms in Nature. This popular article emphasizes the landslide and tsunami modeling aspects of the work. We computed tsunami waves from one of the larger landslides triggered by the 1601 central Switzerland earthquake, placed the results in context with historical information, and discussed implications of the several paleo-landslides that had struck previously.

 

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Asphaug E. , D. Korycansky and S. N. Ward, 2003. Exploring Ocean Waves from Asteroid Impacts,  EOS, 84, 339.

 

In 2003, IGPP provided funds for E. Asphaug, D. Korycansky and I to host a conference here at UCSC on potential tsunami waves from asteroid impacts. This piece, published in EOS, summarizes the meeting in a form readable by the full audience of the American Geophysical Union. Safe to say, we don't have all the answers yet.

 

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Schnellmann, M., F. S. Anselmetti, D. Giardini, J. A. McKenzie, and S. N. Ward, 2004. Ancient Earthquakes at Lake Lucern,  American Scientist, 92, 38-45.

 

This work by the same authors as the 2002 Geology paper (#7 above) gives a popular account of the Paleoseismic research being extracted from the sedimentary history of Lake Lucerne, Switzerland. This paper presents a time line account of how the entire research program unfolded from first recognition of quake-induced landslides to the final conclusions about seismic and tsunami hazard. The casual style of American Scientist and the availability of professional artists to "punch up" the graphics makes it a fun piece to read. As before, my role in the work was the modeling of tsunami waves from paleo-landslides.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/NewScientist.pdf

 

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Natawidjaja, D. H., K. Sieh, S. N. Ward, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, J Galetzka, and B. W. Suwargadi, 2004. Paleogeodetic records of seismic and aseismic subduction from central Sumatra microatolls, Indonesia, J. Geophs. Res., doi:10.1029/2003JB002398, v4, p4306.

 

For several years now, I have been involved in a project with Kerry Sieh (Caltech) that employs coral microatolls as "tape recorders" of changes in sea level on the west coast of Sumatra. Our interest is to use these corals to map out tectonically induced elevation changes associated with the whole earthquake cycle (both co-seismic and interseimsic). This (large!) paper, mostly the thesis work of Danny Natawidjaja, provides a nearly complete discussion of the coral data set that goes back some 200 years together with our initial interpretations of uplift signals due to historical quakes and subduction zone creep events.

 

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Ward, S. N., 2004. Earthquake Simulation by Restricted Random Walks, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 94, 2079-2089.

 

This paper, explores the use of a certain class of random walks as an earthquake simulator. Surprisingly, humble random walks supply many unifying insights into earthquake behaviors. Random walk theory tells us that not only does b-value control the numerical ratio of small to large earthquakes produced, but b-value also fixes the form of many earthquake scaling laws (mean slip versus fault length, etc.) and the actual shape of earthquake ruptures. I believe that random walk earthquake simulators, in conjunction with physically based simulators, will provide an improved basis for statistical inference of earthquake behavior and hazard.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/random_walk.pdf

 

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Lay, T., H. Kanamori, C. J. Ammon, M. Nettles, S. N. Ward, and others. 2005. The Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake  of 26 December 2004.  Science, v308, p1127.

 

The December 2004 Sumatra earthquake was the largest in the past 50 years. By chance, the tsunami from this quake was caught in the middle of Indian Ocean by a passing radar satellite. My role in this paper was to use this tsunami information to augment what could be learned about the earthquake rupture from seismic data.  My tsunami wave modeling indicated that a very large component of slip happened slowly over some 30 minutes. The slow slip seen in the tsunami waves was essentially invisible to seismic observations.

 

PDF:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/science.pdf

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Silver, E., S. Day, S. N. Ward and others, 2005. Island Arc debris avalanches and tsunami generation, EOS- Transactions of Am. Geophys. Un., 86, 485.

 

This EOS article describes the results from our five week survey cruise near New Guinea in 2004. We made detailed sonar studies of the seafloor there searching for submarine landslide deposits off of the many volcanoes in the area. Information obtained regarding the 1888 Ritter Island collapse deposit was particularly helpful in constraining landslide and tsunami models.

 

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Ward, S. N. and S. Day, 2005. Tsunami Thoughts.  Recorder – Journal of the Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists, December 2005, 39-44.

 

The Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists invited Simon Day and I to present a scientific but popular, account of recent tsunami science. Being freed from grouchy reviewers, editors and space limits, we had great fun with the presentation. We discussed a wide range of tsunami sources from landslides, to volcanic collapses, to asteroid impacts, to great earthquakes. One novel aspect was that each of the 11 color figures in this paper linked via the web to a Quicktime movie.

 

PDF:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/CSEG.pdf

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Chesley, S. R. and S. N. Ward, 2006. Impact-generated tsunami: A quantitative assessment of human and economic hazard, J. Natural Hazards, 38, 355-374, DOI 10.1007/s11069-005-1921-y.

 

About two years ago, NASA chartered a Science Definition Team to study the need for, and feasibility of, extending the astronomical search to detect and catalog potentially hazardous asteroids and comets (NEOs) whose orbits cross that of the Earth. Currently all NEO's greater than one km diameter are tracked. The extended search would include perhaps hundreds of thousands of NEOs whose diameters are less than one kilometer. Partly as a cost/benefit analysis, Steve Chesley (JPL) and I went through a formal assessment of human and economic hazards associated with tsunami waves generated by impacts. The process is similar to seismic hazard assessments that I have done in the past. Impactor size/frequency, tsunami generation efficiently, tsunami wave spreading, onshore run up and run in, population density and its elevation and distance from the coast all get stirred into the formulation.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/tsunami_(v43).pdf

 

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Ward, S. N. and S. Day, 2006. A particulate kinematic model for large debris avalanches: Interpretation of debris avalanche deposits and landslide seismic signals of Mount St. Helens, May 18th 1980.  Geophys. J. Int., 167, 991-1004, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03118.x

 

In 2006, Simon Day and I invented a new approach to landslide modeling using particles that slide under the influence of topographically-derived gravitational and centripetal acceleration. The novel aspect of the calculation is that complex particle-to-particle interactions, fluctuating basal contacts, and unresolved topographic roughness within and below the deforming flow are mimicked by random perturbations in acceleration. We applied the method to the May 18th 1980 Mt. Saint Helens debris avalanche. The landslide simulation generates a final deposit whose extent, thickness, morphological structure and lithological variation closely replicate those observed. We believe that success in reproducing many features of the Mt. Saint Helens avalanche indicates that debris deposit data may be used to determine the kinematic histories of less well observed landslides.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/MSH.pdf

 

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Natawidjaja, D. H., K. Sieh, J Galetzka,  B. W. Suwargadi, H. Cheng, M. Chlieh, R. L. Edwards, J-P Avouac and  S. N. Ward, 2006.  The giant Sumatran megathrust ruptures of 1797 and 1833: Paleoseismic evidence from coral microatolls, J. Geophs. Res., v111, B06403, doi:10.1029/2005JB004025.

 

This was another extensive coral-based study of Sumatran earthquake histories led by researchers at Caltech.  I had only a small role in the construction of tsunami models for the 1797 and 1833 earthquakes and by comparing them to the tsunami events of December, 2004.

 

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Ward, S. N., 2007. Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around California, Seism. Res. Letters, 78, 121-133.

 

 RELM (Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model), a sub-group of the Southern California Earthquake Center is charged with finding the best way to come to grip with the full uncertainty in earthquake hazard estimates. RELM's chosen course is to compare a wide range of independent, well documented, and physically defensible hazard models that produce identically formatted output. Toward this end, I generated testable earthquake potential maps based on geodesy, geology, historical seismicity, and computer simulations of earthquakes. It was fun to have one's finger in so many pies.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/RELM_SRL.pdf

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Salamon, Amos, T. Rockwell, S. N. Ward, E. Guidoboni and A. Comastri, 2007. Tsunami Hazard evaluation of the Eastern Mediterranean: Historical Analysis and Selected Modeling, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 97, 1-20.

 

Seismic sea-waves in the Eastern Mediterranean have been reported since written history first emerged several thousand years ago. In this paper, we collected and investigated both ancient and modern reports with the purpose of characterizing tsunami hazard. Overall, we list 20 reliably reported tsunamis that occurred since the mid 2nd century B.C. along the Levant coast, and 57 significant historical earthquakes that originated from the Dead Sea Transform (DST) system. A major conclusion from this work is that onshore earthquakes commonly produce tsunamis along the Levant coastline.  In this paper, I modeled four typical tsunami scenarios - one landslide and three earthquakes. The models show that within five minutes after an offshore slump (such slumps occur after nearly 50% of the large DST earthquakes), a 4-6 m run-up may flood part of the Syrian, Lebanese and Israeli coast. Tsunamis from remote earthquakes, however, arrive later and produce only 1-3 m run-ups, but are more regional in extent.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/Med-equakes.pdf

SAMPLE MOVIE: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/cyprus.mov

 

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Ward, S. N., and S. Day, 2008.  Tsunami Balls: A particulate approach to tsunami runup and inundation, Comm. in Computational Phys., 3, 222-249.

 

This article develops a new, granular approach to tsunami runup and inundation. The small grains that we employ here are not fluid, but bits, or balls, of tsunami energy. By careful formulation of the ball accelerations, both wave-like and flood-like behaviors are accommodated so tsunami waves can be run seamlessly from deep water, through wave breaking, to the final surge onto shore and back again. In modeling several 2-D and 3-D cases, we find that wave breaking generally causes relative runup to increase with beach slope and wave period and decrease with input wave amplitude. Because of their highly non-linear nature, runup and inundation are best considered to be random processes rather than deterministic ones. Models and observations hint that for uniform input waves, normalized runup statistics everywhere follow a single skewed distribution with a spread between 1/2 and 2 times its mean.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/Tsunami_Balls.pdf

SAMPLE MOVIE: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/Humbolt-in2x.mov

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Ward, S. N., and S. Day, 2008. Terrestrial crater counts: Evidence of a two to four-fold increase in bolide flux at 125 Ma. Earth, Planets, Space.

 

Terrestrial crater counts document a rapid (25Ma duration) four-fold increase in crater production less crater destruction at 125Ma. Finding no geologically-based explanation for an accelerated rate of crater destruction prior to that time, nor any other potential sampling bias, we propose that crater production accelerated at 125Ma driven by a four-fold increase in impactor flux. Current best estimates of asteroid flux based on astronomical methods understate the post 125Ma counts of large (dc>10km) terrestrial craters by as much as a factor of four and overstate counts of small (dc<4km) terrestrial craters by as much as a factor of ten. We suspect that stronger than generally supposed atmospheric shielding generates the misfit at the small end. Rapid and dramatic fluctuations in bolide fluxes and large uncertainties in atmospheric effects bode trouble for hazard evaluations that hinge on well-constrained and current surface impact rates.

 

PDF:   http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/crater-counts(v2.4).pdf

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Ward, S. N., 2008. “Tsunami” in The World Book Encyclopedia, World Book Publishing Press, p475-476.

 

This was a short piece covering the subject of tsunami “in 1000 words or less” as is the style for this Encyclopedia.

 

PDF:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/worldbook.pdf

 

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Ward, S. N, 2009. A tsunami ball approach to storm surge and inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, International Journal of Geophysics, Volume 2009, Article ID 324707, 13 pages doi:10.1155/2009/324707

 

This was a very challenging paper because the subject of storm surge was entirely new to me. Moreover, as usual, I insisted on applying a completely different approach than do others in the field. I demonstrated and calibrated the new method by simulating storm surge and inundation around New Orleans, Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and by comparing model predictions with field observations. To illustrate the flexibility of the tsunami ball technique, I ran two "What If" hurricane scenarios -- Katrina over Savannah Georgia and Katrina over Cape Cod, Massachusetts.  Better stay away from the coast during one of these!

 

PDF:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/surge.pdf

SAMPLE MOVIE:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/k-at-no.mov

 

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Silver, Eli, S. Day, S. N. Ward, G. Hoffmann, P. Llanes, N. Driscoll, B. Applegate, S. Saunders, 2009.  Volcano Collapse and Tsunami Generation in the Bismarck Volcanic Arc, Papua New Guinea, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, doi: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores .2009.06.013

 

Among the things done during a cruise on the R/V Kilo Moana in 2004, we mapped 12 debris avalanches from volcanoes in the Bismarck volcanic arc.  In part, this article computes the size of potential tsunami run-up in major local population centers from these avalanches. We calibrate our computations with the known tsunami run-up of the Ritter Island collapse. Even the small collapses may have had significant run-up on near-by coastlines. Had any of the collapses we have identified occurred in modern times each would affect a presently populated region of the coastline to a moderate or significant degree.

 

PDF:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/Silver_2009_JVGR.pdf

 

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Ward, S. N., and S. Day, 2010.  The 1958 Lituya Bay Landslide and Tsunami: A Tsunami Ball Approach, Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami,  Accepted  and  in press.

 

This was another challenging effort as it involved simulating a landslide, a tsunami, and its on land inundation all confined within a Fiord. Moreover, the 1958 landslide—generated wave in Lituya Bay is famous for achieving the highest runup (~525 m) of any known tsunami. We find that a rockslide of dimension and volume generally consistent with observations can indeed tumble from 200-900 m height on the east slope of Gilbert Inlet, splash water up to ~500 m on the western slope, and make an impressive tsunami running down the length of the fiord. A closer examination however, finds a "rockslide only" tsunami somewhat lacking in size outside of Gilbert Inlet. This discrepancy, coupled with fact that ~3x108 m3 of sediment infilled the deepest parts of Lituya Bay between 1926 and 1959, suggests that the source of the 1958 tsunami was not one landslide, but two. The initial rockslide generated the famous big splash and cratered the floor in front of Lituya Glacier. We propose that the impact of the rockslide destabilized the foundation of the Glacier and triggered a second larger, but slower moving sub-glacier slide that helped to bulk up the rockslide tsunami outside of Gilbert Inlet.

 

PDF:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/lituya-R.pdf

SAMPLE MOVIE:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/lituya-es-dir.mov

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Ward, S. N., 2010. “Tsunami” in The Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, ed. H. Gupta, Springer Press, Accepted and in press.

 

Springer Press invited me to contribute an article on tsunami to their 2010 edition of Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics.  Twice previously, in 1989 and 2002 I had accepted a similar assignment, so this time I thought that push the field and embed many movie links in the piece to help animate its many Figures.  I think that the result was very effective in modernizing the old “encyclopedia” concept as being a big book that just sits on the shelf.

 

PDF:  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/ency2.pdf

SAMPLE MOVIE: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/indo-3D3.mov

 

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Ward, S.N. and S. Day, 2010.  The 1963 Landslide and Flood at Vaiont Reservoir Italy – A tsunami ball simulation.  In preparation.

 

In 1963 a newly constructed reservoir in the Italian Alps suffered a catastrophic failure of its south slope.  Landslide material filled-in ¼ of the reservoir volume, splashed a wave up 200 m on the north slope and sent 30 million cubic meters of water over the dam (which survived.).  Within minutes, 2600 people living in the valley below were swept away. This paper constructs a physics-based simulation of the Vaiont Landslide and Flood, again using the tsunami ball technique.

 

PDF: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/Vaiont.pdf

SAMPLE MOVIE: http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/Vaiont-FlyBy.mov

 

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Pen Portrait, Steven Ward

 

Steven Ward is a solid earth geophysicist who, since 1984, has worked at the Santa Cruz branch of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics (IGPP), a multi-campus research unit of the University of California. Steve is a theoretical seismologist by training, but he has migrated into the areas of active tectonics and natural hazards. Lately he has contributed to hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding calculations, computer simulations of seismicity and fault interaction, and multidisciplinary assessments of probabilistic seismic and wave inundation hazard. Steve is quick to grasp the importance of new technologies in Earth science and is particularly integrative in research. Recent examples of this research style include: the melding of surface slip data from field geology with dynamic rupture models of earthquakes; the use of space geodesy to infer heretofore unquantifiable aspects of earthquake recurrence; the introduction of rigorous probability theory into the hazards of asteroid impact tsunami; and the extraction of long term patterns of subduction zone deformation from the growth rings of shallow marine corals. Steve is proud to be path breaker in multidisciplinary science and he believes that new developments in Earth sensing will ensure that geodynamics will be an increasingly exciting field for years to come.

 

Geophysical Journal International Editor:

 

For eleven full years ending July 2003, I served as one of the four North American editors of Geophysical Journal International. GJI is the premier Geophysical Journal in Europe. GJI editors are solely responsible to administer all aspects of the evaluation process from manuscript submission, through review and revision, to final acceptance or rejection. I handled about 20 papers per year for the Journal. This editor position provided UCSC and IGPP wonderful international exposure.

 

WEB Page Construction http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward: 

 

The World Wide Web has become fully mainstream in the past few years.  In many ways, Web-Based methods of information discovery (i.e. Google Searches) have overtaken traditional Library-housed literature searches. I believe that it is crucial for established researchers to understand that the primary avenues to reach the younger generation of scientists will likely be web-based. Conversely, institutions will have to begin to weigh equally the time and effort expended in developing Web-Based resources for Science Education and Outreach with those traditional measures of merit (Science Citation Index Statistics, Paper Publication Counts).

 

In the course of my work, I produce many simulations of landslides, tsunami, earthquake ruptures, asteroid impacts, tsunami runups and coral growth in movie format. All of these, I take considerable to organize on my web site.  Although it is a simple “Plain Jane” site, thousands of people have visited over the past few years (See figure below) searching for credible scientific information. I get emails from scientists, journalists, filmmakers and especially students from all over the world who wish to use the material in articles, presentations, theses or science fair projects. Most lately I’ve been moving some of my simulations to YouTube. Although far removed from the stuffy journals of my generation, a “TUBE style” of presentation truly does represent real science but packaged in a way that the new generation of students is more accustomed to understanding. It is gratifying to me that my science reaches so many people who would otherwise not be exposed. Too, web-based efforts provide a wonderful (and free!) advertisement for UCSC.  Please take a look at the web site and the YouTube videos…

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6COeNRToYqU

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_t_xAGaU-c

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVLWLFMr8cw&feature=channel

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8Py3XgRMkk&feature=channel

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mEe1LqZx_A&feature=channel

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIuwAAPAEFw

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3j87m7wAik


 

My Science Web Site  http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward attracts about 3500 visits a year and introduces the world to earthquake and tsunami research done at UCSC.

 


 

Vision Statement:  “Tectonics in the Next Decade”  (written Spring 2002)

 

Of all of the University of California campuses, I should think that Santa Cruz should be keenly aware of tectonics. UCSC’s buildings shake violently from periodic ruptures of one of world’s most active faults, the San Andreas, just a stone-throw away. The beaches surrounding UCSC drown now and again from tsunami waves parented from undersea earthquakes, both distant ones and those that happen right offshore. The very ground on which UCSC perches has been shoved up from the sea in a geological eye blink. The hand of tectonics on the Santa Cruz landscape is seen everywhere.

 

At UCSC especially, I believe that tectonic studies remain as exciting and rewarding today, as they were 15 years ago when the Institute of Tectonics was christened. I view the next decade as presenting even more wondrous opportunities to see the Earth operate and to understand the physical processes behind the operations. The opportunities ‘to see’ lie in new technologies that precisely monitor the fingerprints of tectonics. Deformations of the Earth can now be tracked over most any time or space scale that you can imagine. Networks of digital seismometers image earthquake ruptures expanding at 6,000 miles per hour. Space geodetic instruments perceive Chicago drifting from Boston at a rate 1000 times slower than your fingernails grow. Quizzically, deformation is both the cause, and the effect of tectonics. The opportunities ‘to understand’ lie in ever more complex computer simulations of what we see. Computer models, like nothing else, have the abilities to tie together theory, experiment, and observation into a single package and to allow the operator to “turn the knobs” to grasp the importance of this or that piece of the puzzle. Computer modeling of tectonics however, is not all a game. It is fully reasonable and desirable, even at this early stage, to employ numerical simulations of earthquake recurrence on all of the faults of the San Francisco Bay Area to help estimate their hazard. So far, we have only had a taste of computer models in tectonics. In the next decade, I picture people “calling up” earthquake forecasts on their PC, much like we summon weather forecasts today. With exploding opportunities to see and to understand Earth movements, the next decade should be a golden era for tectonics, especially here in Santa Cruz where its touch is so strongly felt. 

 

 


 

 

List of Invited Talks 7/2004-6/2007

 

ACES Conference,  Beijing China,   7/11/04

 

Stanford University,  Stanford, CA  1/5/05

 

Memorial University,  St, John's  Newfoundland, Canada  2/21/05

 

Palo Alto Research Center,  Palo Alto CA  3/11/05

 

International Center for Theoretical Physics,  Trieste, Italy  3/24/05

 

Rice University,    Houston TX.   3/30/05

 

Navel Post Graduate School,  Monterey  CA  4/29/05

 

Princeton University, Princeton, NJ   5/16/05

 

California Inst. Technology,  Pasadena CA,  7/22/05

 

American Museum of Natural History,  New York, NY 11/3/05

 

ACES Conference,  Maui, HI   4/15/06

 

 University of Michigan,  Ann Arbor MI,   9/08/06

 

 Franklin and Marshall University,  Lancaster, PA   9/14/06

 

 Inst. National. Geophyics,  Erice, Italy,   10/10/06

 

 Inst. National. Geophyics,  Pisa, Italy,   10/19/06

 

Monterey Co. Office of Emergency Services,  Seaside CA   1/31/07

 

Planetary Defense Conference,   Washington D.C   3/7/07

 

Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst.   Woods Hole, MA   3/22/07

 

International Center for Theoretical Physics,  Trieste, Italy  6/28/07

 


List of Invited Talks  7/2007-6/2010

 

Inst. National. Geophysics,  Rome, Italy,   7/6/07

 

Davenport Geological Society Lecture Series, Davenport CA  10/20/07

 

UCSC, IGPP Lecture Series  Santa Cruz, CA 10/27/07

 

University of Chile,  Santiago Chile  3/27/08

 

University of California, Riverside CA  4/22/08

 

ACES Conference,  Cairns Australia   5/14/08

 

International Center for Theoretical Physics,  Trieste, Italy  9/22/08

 

University of Rome,  Rome Italy,  10/8/08

 

Inst. National. Geophysics,  Rome, Italy,   10/9/08

 

UCSC, Coastal Resources Lecture Series  Santa Cruz, CA 5/6/09

 

California State University Fullerton, Fullerton CA  9/16/09

 

Messina Earthquake Centennial, Messina, Italy  3/13/10

 

 

Mentions of Merit: 2004-2007

 

1) History Channel: Mega-Disasters. Twice, the History Channel came to Santa Cruz to shoot footage for their series "Mega-Disasters".  I was featured on three different episodes: West Coast Tsunami,  East Coast Tsunami and Asteroid Apocalypse.

 

2) NBC Dateline. The host of 'NBC Dateline' came to UCSC to interview me regarding Mega-tsunami from La Palma Island. A fancy two camera set up they had.  After two hours of shooting, five or six of my statements actually got broadcast. That is more than usual.

 

3) CBS Morning TV Talk Show. In the days after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake I was invited to be interviewed in a nation-wide live TV feed on a CBS morning talk show. Scary, but exciting -- a limo pick up, makeup, and everything!

 

4) Time Magazine - Nature's Extremes.  A Time soft cover "Natures Extremes includes a large piece about our 2004 Cruise to New Guinea and a small piece regarding asteroid impact tsunami.

 

5) Newspapers: The 2/21/05 St. John's Telegram and the 6/13/05 San Francisco Chronicle featured nice pieces on my tsunami work and gave UCSC a big headline.

 

6) Popular Mechanics, Discover, Physics Today, Wave Magazine, I.E.E.E, Geotimes, even Playboy!  Several publications picked up various aspects of my tsunami work. Everyone loves far away disasters.

 

7)  Futureshock, Comet - Recently I did some consulting for a London-based film company  -- Darlow Smithson Productions. They are producing a made-for-TV drama about comet impacts on Earth. The production is filming now and due out Summer, 2007. I supplied script ideas, several computer simulations of impact tsunami, and other material.  No, they did not ask me to star!

 

Mentions of Merit: 2007-2010

 

1) History Channel. In summer 2009, the History Channel invited me to the University of Southern California to tape some of my tsunami simulations for an episode of their series Mystery Quest. Together with fellow tsunami expert Costas Synolakis, we discussed how the Legend of Atlantis was based in part on a real tsunami generated by the explosion of Santorini Volcano.  The episode, The Lost City of Atlantis, was so-so, but we got a fair amount of on air “face time” in the final edit and as always, the tsunami simulations looked great.

 

2) United States Air Force.  From time to time, branches of the military run “table top” exercises to evaluate their readiness for various wartime or natural disasters. In 2008 the U.S. Air Force asked me to generate two asteroid impact tsunami simulations as a topic for one of their exercises. Most of the participants had no idea of the magnitude of the consequences that such a tsunami would impose on world order.  See the USAF report here…

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/Natural_Impact_After_Action_Report.pdf

 

3) Earthquake Simulator for Chile and Italy.  In 2007 and 2008 I was invited for extended stays at the University of Chile and INGV Rome. One of the products of these visits were Earthquake Simulators for the two countries. These simulators are physics based “machines” that generate earthquakes on sets of faults.  My hosts were amazed that such machines could be constructed in such short time.  Take a look at them here… http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/italy-sim.mov http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/chile-sim.mov

 

4) Florida Nuclear Power Plant.  A power company is in the permitting process to build a nuclear power plant on Florida’s west coast. As part of the review by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the company asked me to consult on potential tsunami hazards to the plant. It was fun to see how my type of science was received from the corporate point of view.